The NBA has a problem!
Or does it? It all depends on your perspective. On one hand Brian Windhorst recently said, “…the NBA is out of balance.” But then Kevin Durant chimed in about the complaints and said this on Twitter/X.
3-Point Overload: A Troubling Trend in NBA Viewership
One thing no one can argue with however is the fact that NBA ratings are down. Sports Media Watch has been Keeping an eye on sports TV ratings for 16 years and they are reporting a 19 percent decrease in viewership across ABC, ESPN and TNT from this time last year. When you add NBA TV to that mix the drop increases to 25 percent!
Armed with those facts you would think NBA Commissioner would take notice and begin to work identifying the problem and finding solutions. While Commissioner Adam Silver did acknowledge that “…ratings are down a bit” he didn’t seem to think it was all the big a deal. In fact he seemed as concerned over the ratings as some are about the Drones over Jersey. Much ado about nothing; a collective yawn,
Commissioner Silver went on to say that viewership was also down for men’s college basketball, women’s college basketball and the NHL. So, it’s not that people aren’t interested in the NBA, they aren’t interest in sports. I guess. The team over at Sports Media Watch correctly countered that the NFL is thriving. So is SEC football and even the WNBA.
It seems like with most things where you have different opinions – the truth is somewhere in the middle.
The NBA does have a problem. It may not be a huge problem right now, but huge problems do start as tiny ones. On the NBA court scoreboard doesn’t lie. The winners and losers are clear. When it comes to NBA viewership, the numbers don’t lie. So what is the problem?
The Role of the 3-Point Shot
Most fingers point to the 3-pointer. WIndhorst made the statement we shared earlier in response to a wild weekend in the NBA. On the same weekend we saw the most missed threes in game we saw the most made threes in a game. That shined a very bright spotlight on the potential culprit, the 3-point shot. Teams that are good at the shot, like the Warriors and Mavericks, shoot a lot of them. Teams that aren’t as good, like the Bulls and Hornets, also shoot a lot of them.
And now the problem is coming into clearer focus.
The Evolution of the 3-Point Shot
The 3-point shot was introduced in 1979. Steve Purciello and I were fortunate enough to interview the player who almost made the first 3-point shot in NBA history, NBA Champion Kevin Grevey. Chris Ford is credited with the first made three, but Grevey was a close second. He mentioned in our chat with him that the 3-point shot was a novelty at first. Players worked to get closer to the basket because logic dictates that the closer you get, the easier it is to make a shot.
Fast forward 45 years to 2024 however and the shot is easier to make after decades of practice.
Now the consensus thought is, why would I take a 15ft midrage for 2 points when I can step back a bit and get an extra point. It makes sense. So shots from distance started fly! Look a this chart from ShotTracker representing the average 3-point attempts per game by season since the shot was introduced.
The Downsides of 3-Point Dominance
You would think that as you take more of those shots, and NBA players are clearly taking more of them, that your percentage of made shots would go up too. But that’s not the case. Since 2005 the league average has hovered at about 35 percent. The highest percentage since then was in 2008-09 and again in 2020-21 when the league average was 36.7 percent. So far this season the average is 35.9 percent.
More shots are going up but no more shots are being made. See the problem?
For every Warriors v Mavericks game which drives the percentage up, you have a Bulls Hornets “clank-fest” that drives the percentage down. Which brings us back to our point.
The NBA has a problem.
Luckily, I have the solution!
A Radical Solution: Limiting the 3-Point Shot
The NBA adopted the 3 point shot to open up the defense and give smaller players a chance to score. At least that is the company line. 45 years later, I would say that this mission was accomplished, sort of. The game has certainly opened up but 3-point shots are now being taken by just about everyone including those 6 feet and below as well as 7 feet and above.
The 3-point shot did it’s job, now it’s time to move on from it.
Finding Balance for the Future: It’s Time for Change
I don’t mean eliminate the shot altogether. I am saying take the focus away from the shot. You do this by making the shot available only during the final two minutes of each quarter. The first 10 minutes of every quarter every shot, no matter from where you take it, is worth two points. This will encourage and reward moving closer to the hoop to take your shot. It will bring back the mid-range shot and keep the focus on the game over some shot.
In fact, Windhorst said something that justifies this radical approach. “You’re in a better spot when there’s more of a balance, where the 3-point shot is part of the game, not the entire game.“ Exactly! The 3-point shot has been great for the NBA and it needs to stay in the game. It just can’t be the entire game anymore.
Numbers don’t lie. It’s time to move on from the 3-point shot.
