The Indiana Pacers kicked off 2024 by trading for Pascal Siakam in a move that has largely been praised. (Stephen A. Smith is one of the few to offer a dissenting voice) On the surface, for a team supposedly in the midst of a rebuild, giving up 3 first rounders for a player that may leave in free-agency seems wasteful at best. On closer inspection, two of the first round picks are late picks in the 2024 draft, designated as the “weakest” in history. If Siakam sticks around (reports say he is eager to) and returns to his All-Star form, this might actually turn out to be a bargain!
But let’s shift focus to the Thunders.
OKC is currently 2nd in a tough Western conference. They are led by the dynamic trio of All-NBA guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, along with emerging talents Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams (Williams from here on out). Despite their youth, the Thunder boast impressive stats. They rank 2nd in points differential and hold top 6 positions in both offensive and defensive ratings.
The question then is: Should the Thunder make a significant trade, or should they stay the course?
In the pursuit of a championship, the Thunder can afford to exercise patience. Allowing Holmgren and Williams to mature into reliable second and third stars, alongside the development of role players like Giddey, Wallace, Joe, and Dort, might be a strategic move.
Delving into the numbers, the Thunder currently possess the league’s youngest roster by weighted age (wAGE1), clocking in at 23.13 years. Comparatively, recent NBA finalists have averaged a wAGE of 28.41 years and the current league-average is 26.47 years.
Who were the youngest Finalists by this metric, you ask? None other than OKC! When Durant, Westbrook, and Harden all starred for the same team back in 2011-12, they had a wAGE of 25.65. However, their subsequent breakup and Harden’s departure (for not being offered the max extension) underscore the fragility of championship windows.
Contract Situation
Holmgren and Williams, with two years left on their rookie contracts, are poised for max extensions given their performance. Shai is two years into his five-year deal, likely heading for another max contract. If all three stay, they will consume a significant portion of the salary cap in the coming seasons. In fact, 80% in 26-27 and 85% in 27-28. This would make it challenging to build a well-rounded supporting cast, especially under the new CBA agreement. All this is to say that their window with this current roster is around 3 years.
With signs pointing to the potential for a dynasty, akin to the Bulls or Warriors, the Thunders should leverage their stockpile of assets to maximize their championship chances. An argument could be made that the Western Conference is their for the taking. And with the Thunder boasting one of the best records against .500+ teams (14-1), even a minor upgrade through trades involving multiple second-rounders and a single first-rounder could significantly enhance their roster for this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Trade Ideas
The Thunder are terrible at rebounding and allow the highest three-point attempts, ranking in the bottom 3 in both metrics. While the team protect the rim and limits points in the paint, their abysmal defensive rebounding has them ranked second highest in giving up 2nd-chance points.
Enter Andre Drummond, one of the league’s premier rebounders quietly excelling as a backup for the Bulls. His experience would be invaluable to this core of young players. It is only a matter of time before the Bulls head into another one of their rebuilds with LaVine, DeRozan, and Caruso maintaining a constant presence in trade rumors. As a result, trading for Drummond should not be that hard to pull off.
But with all roster spots filled, who do they trade away?
Davis Bertans would be an obvious candidate. He has totaled less than 100 minutes over 13 games and even without him, the Thunders have a league second-best 3-pt%. However, his 17-mil player option next year makes it tricky (a couple picks will go a long way with pick-coveting teams such as the Blazers or Hornets). Another player, Pokusevski, has largely been relegated to the G-League, playing only 50 minutes with his expiring rookie contract making it useful as a salary filler.
Sam Presti, the architect behind the Thunders’ recent resurgence, faces a pivotal moment. With a treasure trove of assets acquired through shrewd trades, the time might be ripe to capitalize on it. The parallels between the current trio and the previous Durant-Westbrook-Harden era are quite evident. No one wants to see a repeat of how that ended.
- wAGE is determined by summing each player’s age multiplied by their respective total minutes played, which is then divided by the total minutes played by all players on the team. This approach provides a more nuanced perspective on the team’s collective age, offering a more insightful measure than a straightforward average player ages. ↩︎
