The 2024 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference has grown from a basketball nerd conference to a multi-sport business conference. For example, it includes sessions on the Future of Football, Globalization of Soccer, Artificial Intelligence at the Paris 2024 Olympics, Building Successful NHL Teams, and How to Foster and Strengthen Golf Fandom. It has become more of a sports business networking event rather than an investigation into basketball efficiency. Of course, there is one nostalgic session by Ben Alamar’s group, “Evolution of Basketball Analytics: 20 Years of Nerds, Data, & Efficiency.”
Analytics has dominated basketball front offices. Analytics speaks the language of ownership who make decisions, not by their eyes or hearts, but their wallets and spreadsheets. This may be sound business, but it may be bad basketball,. Because it is also important to remember what basketball statistics are attempting to represent and capture. It is reasonable to question whether numbers can tell a complete story. Here are some ways where the basketball numbers fail to tell the whole story.
1st vs 4th Quarter and Confidence
Analytics will point a spot on the floor and say what percentage that the shot is likely to go in. For example, analytics may say that a corner 3 is 40%. However, there is a significant difference between a corner 3 in the first quarter versus a corner 3 in the fourth quarter. Many teams score more points in the first quarter than the fourth quarter.
On Friday March 1st, 9 games (18 teams) were played. All of the winning teams except for the Portland Trailblazers and Philadelphia 76ers scored more points in the first quarter than the fourth quarter.
- Cavaliers Beat Pistons: 1st quarter 32 points vs 4th quarter 19 points
- Celtics beat Mavericks: 1st quarter 38 points vs 4th quarter 36 points (won by 28)
- Warriors Beat Raptors: 1st quarter 28 points vs 4th quarter 27 points (won by 15)
- Kings Beat Timberwolves: 1st quarter 30 points vs 4th quarter 24 points and 9 points in overtime
- Pelicans Beat Pacers: 1st quarter 48 points vs 4th quarter 21 points
- Bucks Beat Bulls: 1st quarter 33 points vs 4th quarter 31 points (won by 16 points).
- Clippers Beat Wizards: 1st quarter 33 points vs 4th quarter 30 points (won by 25 points)
- 76ers Beat Hornets: 1st quarter 32 points vs 4th quarter 33 points (won by 7)
- Trail Blazers Beat Grizzlies: 1st quarter 17 points vs 4th quarter 31 points
Not only should everyone bet the 1st quarter overs, but it’s clear that players have fresher legs to score in the 1st quarter and defenses are beginning to test offenses and figure out what works. By the 4th quarter, defenses know what to expect, know who is playing well and who is not, and know how to appropriately counter. For example, in the first quarter, defenses may allow that crisp pass for a corner 3. However, in the fourth quarter, that crisp chest pass is now a wobbly off-balanced pass thrown to the ankle.
The Fourth Quarter is just Different!
Regardless of whether the shot is contested or not, a bad pass can ruin a player’s ability to make a shot. Bad passes change how how shooters set their feet which can make them shoot an off-balanced shot. As defenses improve and gain confidence throughout a game, an offensive player’s confidence also fluctuates during a game. In the first quarter, a player knows that he is getting a crisp chest pass which gives him confidence to shoot a corner 3. However, when the pressure rises in the fourth quarter, the opponent’s defense is gaining confidence by preventing certain actions, and a player catches a wobbly pass below the knee, then that player will not be confident taking the shot.
Unfortunately, analytics treats both 1st quarter and 4th quarter shots as the same, thereby, failing to capture the whole story of why a player makes or misses.
