BJ Mathews is a credential NBA creator covering the LA Clippers for thePeachBasket.net. He is also a host of the Pull Up! Basketball Podcast. In this article he breaks down the Harden Dilemma the Clippers find themselves in.
It Is Time for James Harden to Sacrifice
The LA Clippers have a season record of 32-28. Currently, they are the sixth seed in the Western Conference. Since All-Star break, the Clippers have a 1-5 record. There are a few reasons for that. However, the past couple of losses to the Los Angeles Lakers the Clippers point guard James Harden has been ineffective.
This season, Harden is averaging 21.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, and 8.5 apg, with shooting splits of 38.5%/33.8%/88.0%. Those raw numbers got him his 11th All-Star nod. It is no secret the notion has been Harden’s contributions statistically, and the “leader” of the team is why the Clippers have been competitive all year.
Clippers Head coach Ty Lue spoke on Harden’s current state, “he has carried the Clippers the first 50 games of the season, we got to continue to keep fighting because the schedule does not get any easier.” When Lue speaks on Harden’s inefficient play in back-to-back games versus the Lakers he points it to fatigue. This season, Harden has a usage rate of 29.6. That is his highest usage rate, he has had since playing with the Houston Rockets in the 2020-21 season.
Fatigue and Performance Concerns
Last night, vs the Lakers he logged 38 minutes. In 57 games, Harden leads the team in minutes per game at 34.6. Back in his Rockets and Brooklyn Nets days that number was considered light, but for a 36-year-old aging it doesn’t have the same effect.
However, Harden after last night’s 108-102 loss to the Lakers does not seem to think fatigue is an issue. “No, it’s not fatigue it’s lineups different rotations, and whatnot.” Harden throughout the month of February has been averaging 22.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 9.0 apg off shooting splits of 36.0%/32.5%/85.0%. The raw numbers seem to be there, but the shooting splits along with the turnovers per game is at 4.5. This season, his assist-turnover ratio has also been negative. While he’s averaging 8.5 apg he is counteracting that with 4.5 turnovers per game. That means for every assist he is following that up with a turnover.
The Evolution of James Harden’s Game
In December 2023, the Clippers acquired Harden in a trade from the Philadelphia 76ers. At his introductory press conference, the famous line that he uttered was, “I am a system.” Harden since his Rockets’ days seems to have committed to playing basketball offensively one way, and that’s with him controlling the offense. That ball dominant offense Harden tore up that stat sheet with double-doubles and triple doubles, but for a 36-year-old it is a lot more difficult playing in that style. He doesn’t have the same burst of speed to get by defenders which forces him to tough contested lower efficiency 3-point shots. The refs not being as kind to him with the whistle forces him to score the ball not only at the free throw line. Outside of him playing with the Oklahoma City Thunder, his defense has declined more and more.
In this regard, Harden must be given credit. He has adjusted his offensive game from becoming an ELITE scorer to more of a facilitator with the Brooklyn Nets and the Philadelphia 76ers where he led the league in assists for the 2022-23 season. Now of course, when you have the weapons of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on one team, and Joel Embiid on the other that must be accounted for. Still, Harden has shown he can adjust his offensive game.
The Need for Change: Kawhi Leonard and Team Dynamics
Clippers Superstar Kawhi Leonard just had a 38 point and 10 rebound performance against the Lakers. It looks like he is looking to get back into playoff form. Throughout, Leonard’s 20 game stretch. The two-word Leonard has been echoing is, “paste and take care of the ball.” Leonard is a high IQ player, and a two-time champion he understands the things it takes to win a championship at the highest level.
Harden being the point guard for the Clippers. Controlling the paste and taking care of the ball, those things fall on him. After the loss to the Lakers, Leonard also mentioned “ball movement” being they need to do more of. The “Harden system”, relies heavily on Harden having the ball in his hands more than anyone on the team. With this Clippers team, the best player is Leonard. The system Harden has flourished with the ball sticking with to his hands and little to no ball movement. At this stage of his career, that is not a recipe for success when it comes to winning.
Adjusting for Success
Last season, Harden had a usage rate of (20.6) averaging 16.6 ppg and 2.5 topg off shooting splits of 42.9%/38.8%/87.1%. Much less time with the ball, but more effective as a third option playing behind Leonard and Paul George. Since George is no longer with the Clippers, shooting guard Norman Powell has taken on that scoring load with 24 ppg off 49%/42%/81% leading the team in scoring.
So, Leonard and Powell are the clear two options that should be getting the most shots every game, but it seems like Harden going by his usage rate is trying to run his ball dominant system when he is no longer that caliber of player.
Also, Center Ivica Zubac averaging 16 ppg off 61.2% from the field has proven to be a matchup problem for many teams, but the only problem is he seems to only get the ball from Harden off a pick and roll play. That may have worked at the start of the season, but teams have adjusted, and it’s time for Harden to not only adjust but sacrifice his style of play. That means, less ball dominant play, more offense through Leonard+Powell+Zubac, and Harden doing other things on the court to contribute to the team.
The Road Ahead
The Clippers have one more game left on the road trip against the Phoenix Suns. Let’s see if Harden can began taking steps to change some of these habits a little playing winning basketball.
