The trade deadline is over and despite many a rumor, Malcolm Brogdon remains with the Portland Trail Blazers after 50 games. Portland now launches into the last third of the season with him, Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams III still on the roster.
The Blazers did, however, trade a 2027 Top-55 Protected Second Round pick for Dalanto Banton. The 6’8” guard has averaged 2.3 points, 1.7 rebounds and just under an assist for the year. More importantly, he fulfills two requirements for the Blazers: bigger than 6’4” and no roster penalty. Banton will fill the 14th roster spot as Portland crowds their end of bench rotation in 10-Day and Two-Way contracts. To that end, they signed Rip City Remix guard, Ashton Hagans.
Hagans averaged 13.3 points, 4.1 rebounds and 7.7 assists in the G-League. He looks to fulfill the same role that the erstwhile Skylar Mays provided earlier in the season: an end-of-bench point guard that can calm the offense. In his debut against the Detroit Pistons, he looked like anything but. Hagans drove and kicked and made decisions with twitchy irregularity.
The Blazers lost the game in overtime, 128-122, after leading by 20 midway through the third quarter. Despite a career game from Jerami Grant (49 points, eight rebounds and six assists on 14-29 shooting and 18-20 free throws), the Trail Blazers found a new and frustrating way to lose another game en route to what will end up being one of their worst seasons ever.
Still, before the ball was even tipped off, 50ish games serves as a natural breakpoint to evaluate a team’s season. What better time to review where it is and where it will likely end: poorly and with plenty of tanking.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Embrace the Tank
The Blazers currently sit 14th in the Western Conference at 15-37. After 50 games, they sit with an Offensive rating of 109.5 (29th in the league) against a defensive rating of 117-8 (21st). Their resultant net rating of -8.3 clocks in at 27th among all teams.
They sport a true shooting percentage of 54.6% and an effective field goal rate of 50.7%, both last. They are the sixth worst three point shooting team, making them at a 35.5% clip. Portland does make free throws at a 79.8% rate, good for ninth. Unfortunately, they average only 21.8 attempts per game (21st).
The bad news continues on the glass, where they collect 41.5 rebounds (29th), and on the pass, where they dish out 22.6 assists (30th). Furthermore, the Blazers turn over the ball 14.8 times per contest (25th).
Defensively, they fare slightly better. They hold opponents to an eFG of 56.0% (21st) and a league-best 34.1% from three. They also force their opponents to cough up the ball 15.1 times, good for fourth among all teams. However, they give up just as much in the paint, allowing their opponents to grab 44.6 rebounds (23rd) for a -3.0 net rebounding margin.
For the sake of the reader’s health, I’ll refrain from more dreadful statistics because the long and short of it is simple: the Portland Trail Blazers are awful. To describe them as an offensive trainwreck would be offensive to trainwrecks. They could improve, but it’s not going to amount to a play-in run, just a lower draft pick.
And yet, in that kernel of slight defensive edge, a very real trend continues to be true: the Blazers might play among the muddy dregs of the league’s worst, but they will absolutely drag many of their opponents into the same muck as them and wrestle for 3.5 to 3.9 quarters.
When it does work, and the Blazers find the wherewithal to contest for the grime-ridden win, it is the most fun you’ll ever have as a fan of a rebuilding team.
General Thoughts on the Next 30 Games
These basic statistics all showcase a dreary picture over the next 30 games. For most, the Blazers’ season ended with their win over the returning Damian Lillard and the Milwaukee Bucks. But there’s still some housekeeping to be attended. Three topics come to mind when discussing the Blazers in conversation: draft position, draft targets and Chauncey Billups.
The Blazers Likely Finish 20-62
Over 50, their expected win-loss has been 13-37 according to the Basketball Reference. They outperformed that mark to the tune of 15-35 and are in the midst of a four game losing streak.
Most of those wins already have been delivered on the backs of great veteran performances. The Blazers have notched 12 wins and 15 losses when Jerami Grant scores 20+ points. They have a 7-10 record when Deandre Ayton notches a double-double. And when Malcolm Brogdon registers six or more assists, they are 12-8.
All three of these players are a threat to the mission: a good draft pick. Together with Anfernee Simons, they represent wins in a season that does need them. While it would be beyond the pale to cycle all four out with injuries (wink, wink, nudge, nudge and all that), the Blazers will certainly rotate them in and out of the lineup.
The news does not much improve from there. Portland boasts the 5th hardest strength of remaining schedule in the league. Looking at their upcoming thirty games, there’s only nine that seem remotely winnable.
They are: home against Charlotte (2/25); back-to-backs at Memphis (3/1 and 3/2); a home back-to-back against Houston (3/8) and Toronto (3/9); home against Atlanta (3/13); a revenge game at Chicago (3/18); and a pair of basement dweller bouts at Charlotte (4/3) and Washington (4/5).
Every other game ought to come with the expectation of a loss, probably in double-digits. Considering the Blazers have a propensity for flubbing the easy wins, a sub-20 win season should still be in play. Nevertheless, a 20-62 record seems quite likely, their worst since 1971-72.
Billups Will Not Be Fired, But His Seat is Hotter
In a press conference after the trade deadline, General Manager Cronin told reporters that he he liked the way head coach Billups has handled Scoot’s development, “the same as I really like how he handled Shaedon’s development.”
“I’ve seen so much growth in not just [Billups’] leadership and how he’s interacting with players and the way he communicates, but also in his decision-making, his strategies, his schemes,” Cronin explained further.
This is all bad news for a sizeable portion of the Portland Trail Blazer fanbase, many of whom have had an axe to grind with Billups since his hiring. Certainly, it’s easy to fall into a hot flash of anti-Billups fervor. He holds on to timeouts for far too long, wavers on using his challenges, and his defensive scheme still leaves something to be desired.
Too often does Billups’ defensive coverage end up in mismatches, whether Brogdon on Jokić or Simons on Davis. Too often does his playcalling out of timeout result in turnovers or no play at all. But to the Blazers front office, these are not problems. They’re points of growth.
Despite the team regressing in the record, Billups has shown slightly more sophisticated playcalling, utilizing pick and roll actions with his bigs. He has managed to use challenges effectively (if with some hilarity) as was the case in victories against the Milwaukee Bucks in Portland and the Nets in Brooklyn. And despite noticeable flaws in his defense, the Blazers still buy-in on that end, as evidenced by the recent 93-84 loss against the New Orleans Pelicans.
Billups has come a long way from being a coach who simply “rolls the ball out.” He’s a long way from the original front office that hired him. But he’s still a long way from league-average. So why has nobody fired him yet?
Because he’s cheap. At just over two million per year, his is the cheapest deal in the league and there’s still two more years left of it. One of which is a team option. This means he enters the hot seat next year and it will be next year when his future is most likely decided. For now, he’s on assignment: lose competitively.
The Blazers Might Not End Up Fifth-Worst
For Blazers fans, the All-Star Break heralds draft scouting season. The thing is, despite a coach who is still unproven (but disliked) and a tough remaining strength of schedule, the Blazers might still end up outside of the Top 5 picks for the 2024 Draft.
Unfortunately for Portland, the worst four teams are all but solidified: Detroit, Washington, San Antonio and Charlotte. But that’s not who the Blazers are competing against. It’s the teams chasing Portland’s fifth worst record.
Both Toronto and Memphis have indicated a desire to tank with their moves before the trade deadline. As of February 11th, they sit at 19-34 and 18-35 respectively. Both sport rosters decimated by injuries and player movement. As a result, the fifth worst spot is very much in contention.
This is not entirely a terrible issue. The draft is considered middle heavy, which means that higher picks lock up a similar level of talent for more money. Moreover, the fifth spot is also notorious for not ending up with the fifth pick. There’s a 2.2% chance the Blazers end up at fifth, and a 55.6% chance of falling.
The team has sat on this precarious spot twice in a row. The first time they fell to seventh and the second time rose to third (the trick there was Brandon Roy). Both times, the Blazers made the right pick; guards with high upside, high athleticism and two-way ability.
This year, the draft is filled with players at position the Blazers have needed for years. The small forward spot is replete with talent in 2024. Zaccharie Risacher, Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis and Ron Holland all project as Top-8 picks.
Of course, Alexandre Sarr remains the prize for the Blazers this year, but a selection of Risacher or Williams will provide plenty of value in its own right. Even better, the Blazers may find a deal to move up that could net them one of those three players.
Until then, Blazer fans will have to wait and watch whatever draft guru they desire. That is the reality of the Portland Trail Blazers after 50ish games.
